The Wisconsin Governor Race Is a Data Anomaly. Here's How to Read It.
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The poll dropped at 10:47 AM Eastern. Crowley and Tiffany tied among registered voters. Crowley leads by four among likely voters. The spread between those two numbers is the entire story. Verification precedes valuation; always. Most political coverage will treat this as a dead heat. That is a misread of the data. The discrepancy between the two polling universes is not noise. It is a signal. And for anyone trading on policy headlines, it is the only signal that matters.
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